At present, it certainly seems as if Joe Biden will be his party’s nominee for president. He is the incumbent, leader of his party, and no serious challenger has presented themselves in the Democratic Party.
That said, whether due to increasing concerns over Biden’s approval numbers, age, cognitive abilities, and the multiple investigations into his son Hunter, it is increasingly possible that Biden may decide within the next few months not to seek re-election. Were that to happen, Vice President Kamala Harris would likely be the odds on favorite to replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
However, given the way California Gov. Gavin Newsom has sought to aggressively raise his national profile lately – assertively defending Biden’s record, traveling widely to campaign for Democratic candidates, and serving as Biden’s mouthpiece following the GOP debate on Wednesday, there are legitimate questions as to exactly what Newsom is trying to do, and why is he doing it?
It must be said that Newsom himself has been very careful not to give the impression that his sights are set on challenging Biden. In fact, he has often done the opposite, calling for Democrats to rally around Biden, despite any reservations, saying, “The train has left the station, we’re all in. Stop talking. He’s not going anywhere. It’s time for all of us to get on the train and buck up.”
As a sign of the close relationship between Biden and Newsom, the Biden campaign asked Newsom to attend the second Republican presidential debate, held in Simi Valley, California, as part of a group of top Democratic officials in order to promote Biden’s agenda in contrast to Republicans’ “extreme and out of touch views.”
For Newsom, being asked to attend the debate on behalf of the president is an easy win in his ongoing efforts to build his national brand. He has traveled to six red states, created a PAC to distribute $10 million to Democratic candidates, and provoked Florida Gov. and GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis to a debate hosted by Sean Hannity this November.
Any politician doing what Newsom is would certainly be assumed to have their eyes on the White House. He is integrating himself with donors, building political goodwill with the base, and is hoping to develop a reputation as a determined leader who is willing and able to take on the GOP, an important factor, as Newsom has never had to face a credible Republican challenger due to Democrats’ stranglehold of California statewide politics.
As Democratic strategist Brad Bannon put it, Newsom is “Doing what any able and ambitious politician is doing, he’s putting himself in position to run for president if Biden doesn’t.”
To be sure, the spotlight on Newsom’s ambitions may have more to do with sentiments around the incumbent and his running mate, more than Newsom’s actions. Democrats are deeply concerned about Biden’s age, low job approval, and the widespread unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Indeed, slightly more than three-quarters (76%) of American adults say Biden’s age may “Negatively affect his ability to serve another full term as president,” while two-thirds (67%) of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents want the party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024, per CNN polling.
Further, Harris’ 37% favorability rating even trails Biden’s (41%) according to the RealClearPolitics average, and Republicans have taken notice, running ads declaring that a “vote for Biden is a vote for Harris.”
For her part, VP Harris has stayed relatively quiet on Newsom, although her advisors have made their displeasure at Newsom’s recent attention-grabbing activies known. One Harris advisor told NBC, “It’s disrespectful” and others complained that the upcoming debate with DeSantis may give some voters the impression that Newsom is running a “2024 shadow campaign.”
Newsom had a chance to assuage the VP’s concerns on 60 Minutes last Sunday, when he was asked about any presidential hopes, although his answer is unlikely to have soothed Harris.
When asked if recent efforts to clean up the streets in California factors into a presidential run, Newsom was evasive, saying, “I’m never going to overpromise that in the short run,” when pressed on whether that was a yes or a no, Newsom replied, “That was a…that was a never-ending response to your question.”
Last year, in response to the same question, Newsom said emphatically, “No, no, not happening, no, no, no, not at all.”
This is not to say Newsom would automatically be able to beat Harris in a hypothetical matchup. She often leads him in polling, and, as the face of the Biden administration’s high-profile campaigns to protect abortion access, voting rights, and strengthen gun control, Harris has plenty of opportunities to continue improving her image and record.
Additionally, California’s struggles with crime and homelessness under Newsom have been well documented, and the Democratic base would be unlikely to quietly accept the optics of a privileged, white man catapulting himself to the top of the ticket over the first black, female Vice President.
Ultimately, while it is incredibly unlikely that Gavin Newsom would challenge Joe Biden in 2024, he has laid the groundwork to be Democrats’ top choice should Biden decide to withdraw for age or health reasons, although the longer Biden stays in the race, the weaker any Newsom campaign would be, if he could launch it at all.
However, whether Newsom is eyeing a last-minute entrance into the 2024 race, or jockeying for the leading position ahead of 2028, it is clear that he has been the Democrat who is most active and preparing for any opening, should one be created.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
