Fighting between Israel and Hamas continues to rage with regional implications that could cause the United States to sleepwalk into another major Middle East conflict. False conceptualizations of deterrence have proven hollow as the Biden administration claims it will not send US troops into the fray but surges military assets to the region in an effort to deter the conflict from widening. Recent efforts by Iran-backed militias to break informal ceasefire pledges in Iraq while attacking US positions with drones in the north, alongside similar attacks in Syria and Yemen, highlight the threat posed to U.S. forces in the region. As such, Washington would benefit from a risk-averse strategy that safeguards American lives and encourages de-escalation.
The southern front, constituting Israel, Gaza, and Egypt, has experienced a constant exchange of fire since Hamas launched its October 7 attack. But this is not the only active front, as the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has traded missile and artillery strikes with Israel since October 7. Similarly, unknown assailants launched missile strikes from Syria into the disputed northern territories constituting Israel’s north, leading Israel to respond with artillery and airstrikes on Southwest Syria and the Damascus and Aleppo airports, respectively. Other Iran-backed groups, including militias in Iraq and the Houthi Movement in Yemen, have equally pledged to attack Israel should it continue to escalate against Hamas and the Palestinian public.
Iran has also gradually upped its rhetoric, threatening a military response to a nearly guaranteed Israeli ground invasion into Gaza to uproot Hamas for good. While it is difficult to tell if this is a legitimate threat, it suggests Tehran could allow its proxies in the region—namely Hezbollah—to attack Israel.
As such, Washington has attempted to regain deterrence by moving two carrier groups into the eastern Mediterranean and placing 2,000 military personnel on heightened alert in a signal of “unwavering support” for Israel. US officials have conducted a major campaign to organize a broad condemnation of Hamas for its attack while also attempting to deter Israel’s adversaries from entering the fray. The idea is that Iran, and potentially Hezbollah and the Syrian government, would not risk escalation should the US respond with overwhelming force against them.
This thinking is flawed for multiple reasons. Substantial ongoing support for Israel did not deter Hamas – a much weaker entity than Hezbollah or Iran – from conducting the worst attack on Israeli soil since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Hamas leadership clearly did not see massive military power against it as a deterrent, raising serious questions about how other entities in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” currently view deterrence.
Further, Iran and its proxies view Palestine’s status as the leading geopolitical issue in the region – it is foundational to their revolutionary ideology. A brutal ground invasion into Gaza, which would result in even worse civilian casualties, could ultimately force Tehran’s hand. Even if the Axis of Resistance does not want a conflict with an enemy it knows it cannot defeat at present, it may be willing to take a risk through a proxy that would risk spiraling the conflict into a regional disaster, making Washington’s current approach counterintuitive.
The United States is ill-prepared to handle such a situation. With roughly 900 troops in Syria and another 2,500 in Iraq, these troops are poorly positioned to fend off a major escalation and would likely be targeted, as in the past when the Israel-Palestine conflict has spiraled. US officials are openly aware of these risks in comments to US media.
As such, Washington could find itself sleepwalking into a major regional conflict to defend its troops and Israel, given any retreat in this situation would be deemed politically unacceptable to those espousing an already-broken “deterrence” strategy in the Biden administration.
The risks associated with the potential collapse of regional security should make US officials pause. The lingering presence of US troops in places like Syria and Iraq, without a clear strategy in either country, represents a dereliction of duty across multiple administrations that knowingly put US citizens in harm’s way as a tripwire for conflict with Iran.
Rather than deterring Iran and its proxies, this presence has acted as a vulnerable point of attack for America’s enemies in situations such as the one unfolding between Israel and Palestine today. One small misstep by the US, its partners, or non-state armed groups with poor organization, could quickly escalate into a full-blown war.
Ultimately, clear calls for de-escalation can prevent the situation unfolding in the Middle East from spiraling out of control. It is the US government’s duty to protect American lives – something it will find more difficult to do if a widespread regional conflict erupts, as evidenced by growing protests around regional US embassies and a string of attacks targeting U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. This situation is avoidable should the Biden administration pause, reflect on what is happening, and act with restraint.
Alexander Langlois (@langloisajl) is a foreign policy analyst with the International Republican Institute focused on the Middle East and North Africa.
