The most recent public polling of the Republican presidential race in Iowa shows former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley tied for second with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, some 27-points behind Trump. While 27-points seems like a large, maybe even insurmountable margin, it is not impossible for Haley to pick up enough support to potentially contend with Trump in the January first in the nation caucus.
To be sure, Haley faces a number of formidable obstacles that make it unlikely for her to succeed. First and foremost, Iowa Republicans tend to be Evangelical, and as we’ve seen in the past, prefer the most conservative, right-wing candidate.
Whether it be Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, or Ted Cruz in 2016, the winner of the Iowa GOP caucuses in recent times has not fit Haley’s mainstream Republican mold. It seems former President Donald Trump holds the mantle of most conservative this time around, especially given his appointment of the Supreme Court justices that overturned Roe v. Wade.
Secondly, while 16% in the latest polling in Iowa is impressive for Haley, she still remains tied with DeSantis, the oft-scrutinized Florida governor. Although she has risen ten points since the previous Des Moines Register poll and has the momentum, it is highly unlikely DeSantis will cede to Haley and drop out, especially given the deep pockets of his allied Super PAC, Never Back Down.
Furthermore, with 8 major candidates still in the GOP primary field, the opposition to Trump is seemingly more divided than might otherwise be needed to present an opening for Haley. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who Haley appointed to the Senate, is well funded and seems insistent on remaining in the race at least through Iowa and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie appears intent on competing in the New Hampshire primary.
For Haley to make a legitimate run at the nomination, she needs to consolidate the field so it becomes a two-person contest between herself and Trump, something that looks unlikely to happen given the current dynamics of the race. Positively for Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence dropped his presidential bid this past weekend.
A third barrier for Haley is Trump’s continued strength among the GOP electorate. The Des Moines Register poll shows that he has a favorability of almost two to one positive among Iowa Republicans, giving him a rating that is as high as any other Republican, indicating, as the polls show, that roughly two-thirds of Iowa Republican caucusgoers are considering supporting the former president.
A final obstacle for Haley, who is the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, is her strong vocal support of Ukraine and Israel in their wars against authoritarians and terrorists. Conservative Republicans, particularly those in the House and the base of the GOP electorate, have been skeptical of American support for Ukraine, despite being vocally supportive of Israel at the same time.
There is a growing isolationist movement within the Republican Party which is pulling its foreign policy away from Ronald Reagan’s doctrine of peace through strength abroad. Put another way, Haley’s hawkish stance on foreign policy is most likely out of sync with that of many, if not most, Iowa Republican primary voters.
Furthermore, as alluded to above, over 35%, of Iowa GOP primary voters categorize themselves as Evangelical Christians, making them a crucial bloc in the caucuses. Based on her career and the tact of her current campaign, Haley has not positioned herself as a candidate who appeals to Evangelicals.
Going back to the first debate, Haley was arguing for a 15-week compromise on abortion and ruled out the possibility of a national ban. Her recommendations are at variance with those in the Evangelical community specifically, and conservative Republican community more generally, who philosophically and emotionally, are deeply committed to an outright ban on abortion.
In no way do these present challenges mean that Haley cannot win, but rather suggest that she faces substantial and significant headwinds in closing the gap with the former president, who still dominates the race. Although the deficit appears to be less substantial in Iowa than the gap seen in national polling, it does suggest how high the bar is for her to achieve the kind of electoral success that would bring her into the New Hampshire primary with momentum and broad, national enthusiasm.
If Haley can pull off a massive swing in the Republican primary and win the nomination, she will be in a strong position for the general election. In fact, she outperforms Trump against Biden in four of the six battleground states included in the recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
Even if everything swings Haley’s way and she continues to ride the current momentum into the new year, the success of the Haley presidential campaign will still be predicated upon whether the rest of the field coalesces around her to defeat Trump. If this consolidation does not materialize prior to the February primary in Haley’s home state of South Carolina, it is very likely Donald Trump will walk his way to a third straight GOP presidential nomination.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
