A year before the 2024 elections, attention is on multiple House races in Southern California that will help determine which political party will control the next Congress.
Two Orange County districts, in particular, may play an outsized role in determining who runs the House after 2024: Rep. Katie Porter’s open seat in the 47th congressional district and Rep. Michelle Steel’s seat in the 45th.
Porter’s seat is rated “lean Democrat” by The Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections, while Steel’s seat is considered to “lean Republican” in its latest analysis with just a year to go before the general election.
Steel, a Republican, may hang onto her seat this go-round, said Matt Lesenyie, a political science professor at Cal State Long Beach, but this race could set up a “real nail-biter” of a contest in 2026.
“She’s got experience, she’s going to have a ton of money from the national party coming in,” said Lesenyie. “But whoever emerges from the primary is going to get all the brand credibility and start the next time with those campaign notes and some name familiarity.”
So far, Steel is up against Garden Grove Councilmember Kim Bernice Nguyen, attorney Derek Tran, Brea resident Aditya Pai and UC Irvine Law grad Cheyenne Hunt.
And for Porter’s race, her absence on the ballot as a congressional candidate — she is vying for the U.S. Senate seat — tips the scales in favor of Republican Scott Baugh, Lesenyie predicted.
“Porter’s held that seat because she has cultivated a personal brand: ‘I’m a Democrat, but I’m different.’ It’s pretty hard to lump her in with ‘the Squad’ or with a backbencher,” he said. “Democrats need somebody that everybody knows and that can win a fairly conservative electorate in that district.”
While that coastal district, which includes Irvine and part of Huntington Beach, has slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans — 35.6% to 33.93% — it has a conservative streak, said Lesenyie. The share of voters in CA-47 who do not identify with a party is also the highest in Orange County at 24.62%.
Baugh, said Lesenyie, has name recognition. He represented Orange County in the state Assembly from 1995 to 2000, serving as the GOP Assembly leader in the last year. After his tenure in Sacramento, Baugh chaired the county Republican Party for more than a decade.
“The other things that work structurally for Baugh is that this area in particular is going to be wealthier, economically conservative, slightly more nonpartisan,” he said. “And those folks, the wealthier and older voters, just tend to turn out at higher rates.”
State Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat who has Porter’s endorsement, also comes into the race with name ID and having represented a large swath of Orange County in the legislature.
And with an anticipated larger voter turnout this year, given the coinciding presidential election, it may be Democrats who have the leg up in this race, predicted Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at USC.
“If Porter were stepping down in a midterm year, it’d be a really good pickup opportunity for Republicans,” Grose said. “Even with Baugh running, who Porter beat by only several points, you usually get higher turnout among Democrats in a presidential year.”
“In California, I think a Democratic wave election is more likely (this election year). The big question is, does that trickle down to Orange County like it did in 2018,” said Grose. “The possibility of competition in those districts is really the big question mark. And we might get surprised.”
Other candidates in that race include Democratic community organizer Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina.
And then there’s the recent turmoil among House Republicans as they spent several weeks fighting over who to elevate as House speaker after the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a Bakersfield Republican, from the position. Republicans finally chose Rep. Mike Johnson, a staunch conservative from Louisiana.
Democrats have already launched an effort to tie vulnerable Republicans to Johnson, who rallied his party around former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, but political analysts familiar with California House races believe that will only “matter marginally.”
“Steel, in particular, may be a little more conservative than her district, and so that could be an issue,” said Grose. “But on the other hand, I don’t know if voters know who (Johnson) is.”
“I don’t think anybody turns out for an election thinking about (the) speaker,” said Lesenyie.
If anything, it’s McCarthy vacating that powerful speakership that could be detrimental to California Republicans, said Grose.
“McCarthy being from California helped these Orange County Republicans because obviously, he doesn’t want to see his party colleagues lose in California,” he said. “I don’t know if Johnson is going to be thinking of California as much.”
Elsewhere in Orange County, the 40th district, where Rep. Young Kim is running for re-election, is ranked “likely Republican” by The Cook Political Report. Rep. Mike Levin’s 49th district is considered “likely Democrat.”
The seats held by Reps. Linda Sánchez and Lou Correa are deemed by as unlikely to become closely contested.
