Analysis and predictions for the CIF Southern Section football 11-player playoffs.
DIVISION 1
O.C. teams: JSerra, Mater Dei, Orange Lutheran, San Clemente.
Analysis: St. John Bosco and Mater Dei are of course the heavy favorites to meet in the championship game of this three-round tournament that starts Nov. 10. As good as San Clemente’s offensive line and running back Aiden Rubin are, those holes that are created in most of San Clemente’s games are not going to exist as frequently when the Tritons play St. John Bosco in the first round. Orange Lutheran, the underdog when the Lancers play at Centennial of Corona, has the best chance of any Division 1 team of scoring a first-round upset. Whether the final opponent is Sierra Canyon or Mater Dei, St. John Bosco showed in its Trinity League win over Mater Dei that the Braves have plenty of team speed on offense and defense and that St. John Bosco’s Jason Negro is a great big-game coach.
Final four: St. John Bosco, Centennial, Sierra Canyon, Mater Dei.
Champion: St. John Bosco
DIVISION 2
O.C. teams: Edison, Los Alamitos, Mission Viejo, Servite.
Analysis: Although Mission Viejo and its fine defense beat Los Alamitos in overtime this season, Los Alamitos seems to represent Orange County’s best chance to advance deep in this division because of the size and speed and having a consistent senior, Alonzo Esparza, at quarterback. Servite’s 45-0 loss to JSerra last week on the heels of a great win over Santa Margarita shows how up-and-down the young Friars are in 2022. Long Beach Poly has a spectacular offense.
Final four: Rancho Cucamonga, Mission Viejo, Los Alamitos, Long Beach Poly.
Champion: Long Beach Poly
DIVISION 3
O.C. teams: San Juan Hills, Tustin, Villa Park.
Analysis: Tustin is 10-0. San Juan Hills and Villa Park are 9-1. Any one of them could win this balanced division. A Tustin-Villa Park semifinal would be glorious. All three teams can run the ball well. Carter Christie at Villa Park, Eimesse Essie at Tustin and Sullivan Land at San Juan Hills will be on the All-County candidates list. All three teams have outstanding defenses. Maybe the one with the best defense wins it all?
Final four: San Juan Hills, Etiwanda, Tustin, Villa Park.
Champion: San Juan Hills
DIVISION 4
O.C. teams: Capistrano Valley, Corona del Mar, Newport Harbor, Trabuco Hills, Yorba Linda.
Analysis: Corona del Mar beat Paraclete on Thursday and will play the Santa Barbara-St. Paul winner in the quarterfinals next week. It does not look like an Orange County team will be in the semifinals. But it’s always how you play the day you play, and it’s high school football in which surprises are as common as Starbucks and Subway shops.
Final four: Loyola, St. Paul, Ayala, La Serna.
Champion: La Serna
DIVISION 5
O.C. teams: El Modena, Foothill, Western.
Analysis: Foothill beat Aquinas Thursday night, looking good on offense and defense while doing so, and will play in the quarterfinals next week against the Ventura-Newbury Park winner. Foothill’s loss to El Dorado a few weeks ago still creates doubts about the Knights. El Modena quarterback Xzavior Guess is a game-planning nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. Western is an interesting team. The Pioneers are 9-1. They were overmatched at various positions by Los Alamitos in their loss in August. Western does have team speed on defense, which is the best place to have it.
Final four: Newbury Park, Thousand Oaks, Western, Orange Vista.
Champion: Orange Vista
DIVISION 6
O.C. teams: Crean Lutheran, Cypress, Dana Hills, Huntington Beach, Laguna Hills, La Habra.
Analysis: Dana Hills beat Laguna Hills to win the Pacific Coast League championship. That’s a great win for the Dolphins and just might have them ready to upset Ontario Christian in the first round. Cypress plays well in big games, and has a big-game quarterback in senior Aidan Houston. Every playoff game is a big game.
Final four: Dana Hills, Rancho Verde, Murrieta Mesa, Cypress.
Champion: Murrieta Mesa
DIVISION 7
O.C. teams: El Dorado, Laguna Beach.
Analysis: El Dorado plays at Laguna Beach in the first round. The pick to win that one is Laguna Beach because of the Breakers’ excellent passing attack led by Washington-committed junior quarterback Jackson Kollock. Chino is undefeated, including a season-opening 27-26 win over Laguna Beach. Rematch?
Final four: Chino, Diamond Ranch, M.L. King, Laguna Beach.
Champion: M.L. King
DIVISION 8
O.C. teams: Aliso Niguel, Fountain Valley, Irvine.
Analysis: Irvine’s 7-3 record was forged via a strong schedule. The Vaqueros’ losses are to members of the Hills family – Dana, Laguna and Trabuco. They beat Troy, which beat La Habra. Aliso Niguel vs. Irvine in the quarterfinals would be a fine matchup.
Final four: Brentwood, Summit, St. Anthony, Irvine.
Champion: Brentwood
DIVISION 9
O.C. teams: Marina, Orange, St. Margaret’s, Santa Ana, Sonora, Troy.
Analysis: Orange is playing its best at the best time to do so, which is now. Orange Coast League champion Orange, with Hype Grand at quarterback and Ardwon Morris at running back, can beat Hacienda League champ Diamond Bar in the first round. Sonora has had a great season but received a tough first-round assignment, at Desert Empire champion Rancho Mirage. Troy looks like a first-round winner against Monrovia; Santa Ana, which plays at Santa Monica, and Marina the visitor against Vista Del Lago, are first-round longshots.
Final four: Rio Hondo Prep, Rancho Mirage, Troy, Los Osos.
Champion: Los Osos
DIVISION 10
O.C. teams: Beckman, Brea Olinda, Capistrano Valley Christian, Kennedy, Segerstrom.
Analysis: Beckman is an interesting team in this division. The Patriots are 8-2 with losses to superior teams, Irvine and Laguna Hills. Kennedy is one of the more improved teams in county football. The Fighting Irish are seeded fourth and go into the playoffs representing a strong league, the Empire League, in which they finished 1-4.
Final four: Torrance, Elsinore, West Covina, La Quinta of La Quinta.
Champion: Elsinore
DIVISION 11
O.C. teams: Esperanza, Westminster.
Analysis: Esperanza lost to Riverside Poly in the first round Thursday because Riverside Poly held Esperanza running back Aaron Forsgren to 39 yards, 115 yards below Forsgren’s average in the regular season. Westminster must play at Almont League champion Scurr in the first round. Schurr’s margin of victory in league games was 42 points.
Final four: Quartz Hill, Ramona, Riverside Poly, Schurr.
Champion: Schurr
DIVISION 12
O.C. team: Buena Park
Analysis: Buena Park is in the football playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Coyotes upset Sunny Hills in the Freeway League, a crucial win that helped Buena Park finish 5-5 and earn an at-large team in the playoffs.
Final four: Coachella Valley, Fillmore, Arrowhead Christian, Yucca Valley.
Champion: Coachella Valley
DIVISION 13
O.C. teams: Estancia, Los Amigos, Santa Ana Valley.
Analysis: Los Amigos finished in a tie with Rancho Alamitos for the Garden Grove League championship. The Lobos have to play at top-seeded San Gabriel in the first round. It sort of feels like an upset there. But San Gabriel is the logical choice. Valley has to play at St. Monica in the first round and Estancia, if the Eagles beat Baldwin Park at home, would likely play Desert Hot Springs in the second round.
Final four: San Gabriel, Grace, Garey, Desert Hot Springs.
Champion: Desert Hot Springs
DIVISION 14
O.C. teams: Bolsa Grande, Ocean View, Rancho Alamitos, Whittier Christian.
Analysis: The top-seeded team here is Artesia, alma mater of basketball gypsy James Harden. Rancho Alamitos, the Garden Grove League co-champion with Los Amigos, is likely to pull a first-round upset of Santa Rosa Academy. The pick here is for Ocean View to beat Bolsa Grande for the second time this season; they play at Ocean View in the first round. Whittier Christian won the Division 14 title last season and comes back into this division’s playoffs hot with six wins in its past seven games.
Final four: Artesia, Bell Gardens, Hawthorne, Whittier Christian.
Champion: Whittier Christian.
